Portfolio update - 2018 Mar

Clouded by trade war fear, gloomy March was a highly volatile month with STI dropped 2.56% to close at 3427.97, barely above 3400 after today's strong rebound of 1.34%. Unfortunately my portfolio drop 3.73% to underperform STI for consecutive two months; mainly due to my existing holdings are weak due to the killing-the-goose strategy I executed in February. 

Stock	28-Feb	29-Mar	% change
China Star Food	0.092	0.069	-25.0%
YZJ	1.51	1.21	-19.9%
Trendlines	0.136	0.123	-9.6%
Capital World	0.079	0.072	-8.9%
Geo	0.235	0.225	-4.3%
Sunningdale Tech	1.93	1.88	-2.6%
Alliance Mineral	0.375	0.37	-1.3%
GSS Energy	0.166	0.164	-1.2%
Total % change after weightage:			-6.50%

If you wonder why my overall portfolio only drop less than 4%, that's because I reinvested similar sum this month in some stocks and their performance is much better. 

Stocks bought before correction due to trade war fear:

Yanlord at 1.64

FA: Undervalued as price < NAV and < Cash per share, with solid growth in revenue and earnings for past few years. 

Buying reason: Bought before earnings results, hoping for a good results (which turns out to be great) 

Reference price: CEO and company have been buying back frequently at much higher prices. 

Memtech Intl at 1.53

FA: A growing precision plastic component manufacturing with higher-than-peer margin and reasonable PE. 

Buying reason: Was looking for a stock to fill in AEM's void for manufacturing sector, and this is a stock that I have been aiming for quite some time. Wanted to jeep it since $1, but keep missing the boat. This is more of a momentum play seeing that the buying up interest is still strong, and still have some room to rise up to the most optimistic analyst report's TP: $2. 

Reference price: N/A as couldn't find any

China Star Food at 0.077

Buying reason: Reloaded back the quantity that I have previously sold at 0.092. Unfortunately this is not the bottom, and the price is still dropping. Still keeping hope on this net-net stock as fundamentally current price is severely undervalued, just need to wait for company's business to be back to normal next quarter or two. Risks are definitely there, but we will know soon whether this is a real deal or not.

Falcon Energy at 0.056

Buying reason: A tiny position for gambling bottom fishing play, and went absolutely wrong subsequently as I bought it just before the correction. 

Stocks bought during the correction:

To be frank I didn't expect market (especially US market) to have reacted so badly on Trump's tactic in the trade war, as my view is strongly shaped by Dr Chan Yan Chong. I believe it will eventually be sorted out through negotiation, but how long will be the progress is everyone's guess. On the first day of correction, I impatiently fired away almost all my shots using my remaining small war chest. 

AEM at 6.5

FA: The only company in SGX guided for a better FY2018 than FY2017. 

Reference price: 6.1, the price that they sold to long-only institutions; believing those institutions have done their due diligence and they are not stupid. 

Buying reason: Regret-driven redemption buy, as AEM always soared after I have locked in my profits; but to buy at 6.1 requires more than 10% drop which is a bit too much within a day, so I roughly use a 7% drop (2 times NASDAQ drop + NASDAQ futures drop %) and key in this supposedly 'low-ball' price before the market opens, as I would be busy working on the day. So surprise I get the order filled at exactly the lowest price of the day. But that euphoria feeling of perfect luckiness only lasted for a couple of hours after seeing NASDAQ dropped another 3% at the night. 

Chip Eng Seng at 0.945

FA: Decent property counter with one of the higher dividend yield. Sold in last year at similar price after the news of termination of Tower Melbourne contract, fearing that the news might affect the price's momentum. With recent announcement that they have found a buyer for this project and made a clean exit, I have put it back in my watch list. 

Buying reason: Betting on the likely recovery of Singapore's property market. Was comparing this against Roxy-Pacific, Bukit Sembawang and decided to buy back CES instead. In case the anticipated recovery doesn't happen or doesn't happen soon, I can still collect some dividends. 

Reference price: The bottom of 0.88 - 0.90 have been tested three times in recent corrections, so I feel quite safe to enter at this price. 

Cityneon at 1.04

FA: Stronger than expected results but the price moved the other direction. This year the earnings from IP section should grow more, making the forward PE decent. 

Reference price: 0.90 was the price offered by Lucrum 1 previously to take over Cityneon, which was rejected by shareholders. Don't think the price can hit 0.90 unless another long correction happens, it could drop further to $1 if the market turns more bearish next week. But this price is already attractive to me, maybe because I have divested at this price back in Feb.  

Stocks sold:

None. I think I am not good at cutting loss, and I don't know how to time it as well. For all my weak holdings, I asked myself if I didn't own it, would I buy it at current price? If yes why should I cut loss?

But giving that my top holdings AMAL is getting more exciting after a eventful March, I am considering to sold some of the weak holdings to increase % of weightage of AMAL; since AMAL could offer higher potential return than some of them like Trendlines and Capital World. Let's see what next month the market will bring to me.