Market Summary (13th Nov - 17th Nov)
2017-11-17:
Finally a green day that lightened the mood of everyone for a good weekend. This was triggered by a strong rebound from US indexes yesterday night.
2017-11-16:
We are more conservative here, and hence STI continued to drop while most Asian counterparts recovered. Not as bad as the day before as some stocks recovered but general sentiment was still weak.
Compact metal rocketed after breaking resistance yesterday. There ought to be few hot pennies in the market for traders and speculators, and their uptrend have nothing to do with FA most of the time. A pure greater fool arena for smart traders.
2017-11-14:
Wao, another flushing day. What was different this time market's sentiment wasn't clouded when it opened, but the tide soon turned when BBs decided today is a good day for profit taking after so many company announced earnings and started pushing prices down for most stocks.
The unstoppable bull COSCO showed first sign of weakness, with highest volume transacted yet slower price acceleration, suggesting that BB might have taken some profit. Jiutian showed amazing resilience to rebound from day low 0.081 to close at 0.087, with highest volume transacted these few days too. Perhaps a lot of smart traders have exited to take their fat profits, those who joined in today, in my opinion, really have taken a risky bet with much more downside than upside.
2017-11-13:
It was a relatively calm day bar from few exceptional stocks.
Finally a green day that lightened the mood of everyone for a good weekend. This was triggered by a strong rebound from US indexes yesterday night.
| Stocks | Prev Close | Open | Close | +/- | +/- (%) | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compact Metal | 0.049 | 0.049 | 0.059 | 0.010 | 20.40% | 6.4mil |
| Metal Component | 0.035 | 0.038 | 0.042 | 0.007 | 20.00% | 2.2mil |
| DBS | 23.34 | 23.63 | 24.13 | 0.79 | 3.40% | 229mil |
| Hi-P | 1.9 | 1.92 | 1.96 | 0.06 | 3.16% | 6.2mil |
| Memtech Intl | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.22 | 0.09 | 7.96% | 2.4mil |
| Yanlord | 1.62 | 1.65 | 1.73 | 0.11 | 6.79% | 15.4mil |
| Raffles Edu | 0.32 | 0.28 | 0.29 | -0.03 | -9.38% | 2.5mil |
| Silverlake Axis | 0.585 | 0.58 | 0.61 | 0.025 | 4.27% | 3.0mil |
| Datapulse Tech | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.415 | -0.025 | -5.68% | 1.2mil |
With COSCO's steam starting to subside, the bull of the market has turned more metallic, as witnessed by the roaring price of both Compact Metal and Metal Component. Seriously both pennies in play have nothing much in common except for having the word metal in their name, and are going to make loss in the year.
For non-penny, DBS led the charge with 3% increase, while Hi-P resumed the bull run with another 3% advance. Most advances, though, belong to Memtech International (8%) in manufacturing sector; and Yanlord (7%) in property sector.
Raffles Education suffered 9% drop due to the legendary but old Ooi Hong Leong withdraws ouster bid. This perhaps highlights the risk of buying on boardroom saga play. Silverlake Axis, finally broke through 0.6 and closed at 0.61, negating the effects of frequent selling from Hna Group that needs cash to fund its M&A activities. Datapulse Tech, snapped 2-day bull run on quick profit taking. Will it slide further or will it resume the bull run? Such quick profit taking seems uncommon in pennies play nowadays. Oh ya, maybe because it is not a penny. Mystery solved.
We are more conservative here, and hence STI continued to drop while most Asian counterparts recovered. Not as bad as the day before as some stocks recovered but general sentiment was still weak.
| Stocks | Prev Close | Open | Close | +/- | +/- (%) | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compact Metal | 0.042 | 0.042 | 0.049 | 0.007 | 16.67% | 2.1mil |
| Datapulse Tech | 0.405 | 0.405 | 0.44 | 0.035 | 8.64% | 1.8mil |
| Innotek | 0.355 | 0.355 | 0.385 | 0.03 | 8.45% | 1.0mil |
| Cityneon | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 7.84% | 2.3mil |
| Tat Seng Pkg | 0.69 | 0.695 | 0.74 | 0.05 | 7.25% | 0.4mil |
| RHT Health Trust | 0.895 | 0.89 | 0.855 | -0.04 | -4.47% | 9.1mil |
Compact metal rocketed after breaking resistance yesterday. There ought to be few hot pennies in the market for traders and speculators, and their uptrend have nothing to do with FA most of the time. A pure greater fool arena for smart traders.
Both Datapulse Tech and Innotek rode on the second wave up, while Cityneon rebounded nicely. Tat Seng Pkg rose maybe due to glimpse of company's progress in latest Hanwell's results.
RHT Health Trust, on the other way, fell 4% on perhaps newest analyst report from DBS with TP of only $0.85. So I guess there is some uncertainty in how much debts need to be pay off. Seems like fair price is around $0.9, with risk of deals doesn't happen.
2017-11-15:
Sell, sell, sell is the theme of the day, not only for SGX, but for worldwide. If this continues, perhaps a correction might be on the way. STI dropped 30 points, or 0.894%, with most blue chips, property counters, O&G counters got dumped.
Stocks
|
Prev Close
|
Open
|
Close
|
+/-
|
+/- (%)
|
Value
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UMS
|
1.06
|
1.08
|
1.15
|
0.090
|
8.49%
|
23.2mil
|
Hi-P
|
1.85
|
1.85
|
1.93
|
0.080
|
4.30%
|
6.0mil
|
RHT HealthTrust
|
0.81
|
0.88
|
0.895
|
0.085
|
10.49%
|
18.7mil
|
Datapulse Tech
|
0.345
|
0.375
|
0.405
|
0.06
|
17.39%
|
2.3mil
|
Ellipsiz
|
0.79
|
0.85
|
0.835
|
0.045
|
5.70%
|
1.9mil
|
Innotek
|
0.315
|
0.335
|
0.355
|
0.04
|
12.70%
|
1.2mil
|
Uni-Asia Group
|
1.53
|
1.42
|
1.29
|
-0.24
|
-15.70%
|
1.0mil
|
Teckwah
|
0.52
|
0.48
|
0.475
|
-0.045
|
-8.65%
|
0.4mil
|
Delong
|
2.94
|
2.97
|
3.24
|
0.300
|
10.20%
|
1.9mil
|
Amidst the widespread sell offs, tech stocks rose, surprisingly spearheaded by UMS, and the wounded bull Hi-P. If even Venture dropped 3% you wonder how on earth they rose instead.
Other stocks rose on catalyst news. RHT HealthTrust soared after Fortis proposes to buy RHT Health Trust's entire asset portfolio for S$966m, which translates to $1.2 per share. But does the offer covers the debt? (According to latest update from MKE, based on $966m netting off $120m debt will works out to be $1.047 per share). A even more puzzling scenario was on Datapulse Tech, where it announced that it will terminate the option to purchase Toa Payoh industrial property at $10.5 mil. How does this actually translate to company's gain and hence caused the share price to rise 17%? For Ellipsiz, its controlling shareholder, Bevrian, has been approached by a third party to explore a possible transaction.
Among company that announced results, Innotek seem to be lucky one to have price shot up by 12.7%. Doesn't seem a fantastic results to me, but I might have missed some parts that might confirm their turnaround story. Uni-Asia Group, on the other hand, dropped like flies after disappointing results. The company is on my watch list and I was considering to buy it, suspecting good results after Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has been increasing for the past few months. I didn't pull the trigger due to the wide spread between bid and ask price and the illiquidity. How lucky am I. And Teckwah's share price also dropped 8%.
On this day where the super bull COSCO started to turn bearish, it was lucky that Delong took over the power, and rose 10% after falling non-stop from $4 to $2.9. Though the volume transacted is much lesser than normal bull counters (but decent for Delong), at least now it has no longer a bear, which makes me feel slightly happy too.
Wao, another flushing day. What was different this time market's sentiment wasn't clouded when it opened, but the tide soon turned when BBs decided today is a good day for profit taking after so many company announced earnings and started pushing prices down for most stocks.
| Stocks | Prev Close | Open | Close | +/- | +/- (%) | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSCO | 0.545 | 0.565 | 0.585 | 0.040 | 7.33% | 60.2mil |
| Jiutian Chemical | 0.093 | 0.092 | 0.087 | -0.006 | -6.45% | 13.4mil |
| Sen Yue | 0.036 | 0.037 | 0.043 | 0.007 | 19.40% | 1.3mil |
| China Sunsine | 1.09 | 1.01 | 0.935 | -0.155 | -14.20% | 4.1mil |
| Wilmar | 3.32 | 3.31 | 3.19 | -0.130 | -3.92% | 58.2mil |
| Accordia Golf Tr | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.71 | -0.05 | -6.58% | 8.6mil |
| Geo Energy Res | 0.285 | 0.285 | 0.27 | -0.015 | -5.26% | 2.8mil |
| Pan Hong | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.425 | 0.015 | 3.66% | 1.1mil |
| JB Foods | 0.385 | 0.455 | 0.5 | 0.115 | 29.90% | 0.4mil |
| HMI | 0.655 | 0.675 | 0.71 | 0.06 | 9.16% | 5.5mil |
The unstoppable bull COSCO showed first sign of weakness, with highest volume transacted yet slower price acceleration, suggesting that BB might have taken some profit. Jiutian showed amazing resilience to rebound from day low 0.081 to close at 0.087, with highest volume transacted these few days too. Perhaps a lot of smart traders have exited to take their fat profits, those who joined in today, in my opinion, really have taken a risky bet with much more downside than upside.
A penny Sen Yue was played up after break out from long consolidation. What is even more surprising, is that China Sunsine was sold like company is going bankrupt and dived 14%, after reported so-so results; whereas the company who is in deep trouble and could really go bankrupt, Noble Group only dropped 10%. Wilmar, as the last blue chip I hold that reported results, also dropped 4% with average results. Accordia Golf Trust dropped 7% after reporting lower DPU despite higher revenue and profit due to puzzling unusually large repayment of membership deposit. Geo Energy Resource, with 1c interim dividend declared, also couldn't please some current shareholders and caused them to dump their shares and exit. This market is so fun and interesting!
Pan Hong, after announced good results, continue their bull run. An very interesting tiny cap stock, JB Foods, rose a whopping 30% after reported five-fold earnings and declared 2c dividend. This company runs a simple business - processing cocoa. HMI, after reported good earnings and issued new shares to heliconia, also rose 9%.
All in all, this was an action-packed day. The jaw-dropping dive of China Sunsine taught me a great lesson in protecting my profit. I had previously practiced selling stocks before their results on China Aviation and UMS as I deemed their price is near fair value; but I had not thought of practicing the same on China Sunsine as I thought it is still far from its fair value. If sells on news is more common after the stocks has a considerable run-up, perhaps I should really look into selling before the results, not only as a mean to protect my gains at expense of a few % gain if results are better than expected, but also a great chance to capitalize on market irrationality that holders throw away good stocks dirt cheap simply because results are not what they expect.
What really does the market expect? Perhaps more and more are expecting fast and handsome cash like what COSCO and jiutian chemical provides.
It was a relatively calm day bar from few exceptional stocks.
| Stocks | Prev Close | Open | Close | +/- | +/- (%) | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COSCO | 0.44 | 0.435 | 0.545 | 0.105 | 23.86% | 41.0mil |
| Jiutian Chemcial | 0.085 | 0.088 | 0.093 | 0.008 | 9.40% | 10.1mil |
| Allied Tech | 0.072 | 0.072 | 0.077 | 0.005 | 6.94% | 7.8mil |
| Falcon Energy | 0.096 | 0.096 | 0.104 | 0.008 | 8.33% | 3.1mil |
| ComfortDelGro | 2 | 2 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 5.00% | 38.2mil |
| UMS | 1.02 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 0.020 | 1.96% | 6.1mil |
| APAC Realty | 0.905 | 0.915 | 0.955 | 0.05 | 5.52% | 4.6mil |
| QAF | 1.2 | 1.15 | 1.15 | -0.05 | -4.17% | 1.1mil |
| Pan Hong | 0.375 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.035 | 9.33% | 0.9mil |
| Best World | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.23 | -0.050 | -3.90% | 8.0mil |
| Delong | 3.28 | 3.33 | 3.12 | -0.160 | -4.88% | 1.7mil |
COSCO, Jiutian Chemcial, Allied Tech and Falcon Energy continued their bull run and COSCO especially melted up all the way. If this continues for one or two days more, those who invested during 0.3x price few days ago, could have got 100% gain in a short period. Well, that's just simply crazy and incomprehensible.
Similarly, those who invested in Jiutian at end October at 0.4 have gained more than 100% now. It has gotten a bit too hot perhaps, with the latest results just out, the bull run may well officially end. Results is fantastic on YoY basis, but not as good as last quarter. If people weren't excited when the last quarter result were announced, and not excited when profit guidance announced in 20th July, I don't think they will get excited about latest quarter results. Time to face the music.
| RMB million | Q1'16 | Q2'16 | Q3'16 | Q4'16 | Q1'17 | Q2'17 | Q3'17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 149.2 | 164.1 | 145.2 | 249.9 | 270.6 | 249 | 233 |
| Net Profit | 1.27 | 4.59 | 0.5 | -6 | 5.7 | 24.3 | 12.1 |
Results for Allied Tech is not spectacular too, so I wonder if the bull run could continue. But sometimes the stock is just a symbol for the money game to run, and could disconnect from reality from time to time.
On the other hand, Comfort Delgro rose 5% after seemingly bad, but perhaps better-than-expectation results. Their businesses didn't suffer as bad as their depressed stock price and hence rebounded. UMS had a lukewarm gain, which suggested that investors were not too excited about the results. Fresh IPO company, APAC, in line with the great anticipation of property recovery, rose after a decent results. Seriously it is hard to describe the results as there is no meaningful base for comparison. EPS for the quarter is 1.76 cents, let's assume a bullish view that APAC could earn EPS 2c per quarter, which equals to EPS of 8 cents, the PE is about 12 at current price. Assuming 50% dividend payout ratio, which is dividends of 4 cents, the dividend yield is 4.2%. Is it exciting? Not for me at least. But it could carry the momentum and break $1, since it has just heated up. QAF's price dropped after reported a disappointing results.
Pan Hong, continue the bullish run from Friday and surged almost 10% on good volume. Perhaps the boat for me to add is gone. Best World resumed the slide, and Delong, continued sliding non-stop; which was painful for me to see. So unlucky was I that got in right before they announced the news of maintenance and dismantling of furnaces that could caused the EPS and NTA to decrease by RMB1.34. Still, the market is simply too crazy to drive it this low, given that it is still much undervalued. Well, there is a lesson learnt for each and every investment decision. Just hope those funds that buy up COSCO fervently will one day turn their attention to Delong. :)
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